Bitcoin Prediction: Price
So far, despite Bitcoin predictions, 2018 has not seen price levels as expected by many. Of course, what is to be expected when it comes to the price of Bitcoin, or altcoins? Many entering the crypto space in late 2017 when Bitcoin and altcoins were at all-time-highs might be disappointed with the price. However, Bitcoin hodlers who bought in Jan-Feb 2017 or earlier are still considerably “in the green” and quite happy with the performance of their investment – altcoin investors…not so much. If one looks at the charts for Bitcoin, ignores the ATHs of late 2017, and looks at the overall trajectory – the price of Bitcoin remains in an upward channel.
Here are some Bitcoin predictions for 2018 year-end:
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said that Bitcoin “was absolutely a bubble based on the futures launch in December and a lot of enthusiasm for the asset.” His statement is based on Google searches, which obviously are fewer compared to late 2017 when Bitcoin was mooning and newbies were jumping onboard thinking they would “get rich quick” without understanding cryptocurrency at all. Bitcoin’s price is $6,339 (at time of posting) compared to $3,900 this same date in 2017. It seems clear there are investors well aware of the innovation and potential of the technology regardless of how many noobs may or may not be searching Google.
Ran Neu-Ner, host of CNBC Africa’s “Crypto Trader”, points out there were 27,000 blockchain startups in 2017, which was surpassed by the end of the second quarter in 2018. The number of Blockchain wallets has been growing since the creation of the Bitcoin virtual currency in 2009, reaching over 25 million Blockchain wallet users by the end of June 2018. Again, pointing to the conclusion that now is a great time to be buying Bitcoin.
Cameron Winklevoss, one of the popular Winkelvoss twins, says “Bitcoin is actually fixed in supply so it’s better than scarce … it sort of equals a better gold across the board. We think regardless of the price moves in the last few weeks, it’s still a very underappreciated asset.” The Winkelvoss twins are long-time Bitcoin enthusiasts who look for the price to go up over time and eventually disrupt gold.
Bobby Lee, CEO of China’s first Bitcoin exchange, feels Bitcoin will surpass $1 million – but will take 20 years to do so.
The Internet is rampant with Bitcoin predictions, but at this stage, it is obvious that Bitcoin and altcoins will be greatly affected by speculative investors. Fluctuations in price are normal and really do not affect the longer-term outlook. This is good news for those attempting to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible during this period of early adoption. As nervous investors that bought at all-time-highs capitulate, believers in Bitcoin will buy when they sell and benefit in the long run.
Bitcoin Prediction: Capitulation
Capitulation is defined as “to surrender or give up” and as related to Bitcoin predictions the term is used to indicate a point in time when investors have decided it is time to give up trying to recapture lost gains. If the majority of investors continues to hold and wait out the bear market, then Bitcoin’s price will remain relatively stable. If the majority of holders decide to take the loss and sell their Bitcoin, it will drastically drop in price. This action – when significant across the entire market – is known as market capitulation.
When capitulation occurs, it will signify the bottom and be a good time to buy Bitcoin before the next bull run is kicked off. Many traders making Bitcoin predictions have different ideas on what price will signify the bottom and we’ll take a look at their reasons and those price predictions.
Coindesk.com (a popular news resource for Bitcoin) gives three scenarios as possible areas in which capitulation could occur given the current market. The first centers around the awaiting ETF decision set for September 30th by the SEC. This third attempt by Vance SolidX Bitcoin Trust is for an ETF that will cost $200,000 for each share. A high price that reflects the funds’ focus on institutional vs. individual investors.
The SEC extended the deadline of August 16th to September 30th, and could very well announce another extension to December 29th if so inclined to feel more time is required to either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove. The SEC can extend a deadline up to three times. August was the first, September is the second, a December extension would be the third, with a final decision February 4 to March 4, 2019, or thereabouts. In essence, the SEC has 240 days after an ETF is filed in which to make a decision. February 27, 2019 is 240 days from the July 2, 2018 filing date.
Technical analysts take only price action into account, but a decision by the SEC would certainly have an effect on the price of Bitcoin. Approval is almost certain to cause a rise in price, whereas a disapproval could, in turn, cause a further drop in price and many have offered Bitcoin predictions of price for both scenarios.
A disapproval or no decision and a new deadline is likely to give Bitcoin reason to continue the current bearish trend to the downside. This second scenario is based around a disapproval or non-decision on September 30th and cites a first “bottom zone” around $5,000, or maybe as low as $3,000. It is believed that the increasing volatility could cause capitulation – where the majority try to exit their positions; and anger – where investors try to find a consensus response for general consolation.
The psychological crisis among investors could start a huge reversal from any price below $5,000, resulting in a brief lateral market and ultimately kicking off a reversal rally to $14,000. Such a scenario could very well activate another huge bull run that reaches beyond the current all-time highs of Bitcoin.
There is a third “doomsday” scenario that paints an ultra-bearish view with a Bitcoin prediction of price dropping to the $1,200-$1,300 range. There are some analysts who feel the $1,300 zone must be retested as a support level. How low can Bitcoin prices go? Bitcoin predictions are plentiful online, but no one really knows and everyone offering a prediction is simply and plainly guessing. It does seem clear that the lower the price of Bitcoin goes, the more altcoins we see dropping off the charts, and perhaps that is good riddance.
While there could be “dead cat bounces” during a corrective rally here and there, technical indicators show the current downtrend continues with weak volume that does not seem to support a return to the highs experienced in late 2017. However, price continues to remain in the overall, long-term upward channel at the current time.
Of course, this is crypto – so anything could happen. Best to practice good risk management strategy and only invest what you can afford to lose if you are a trader. Those invested in Bitcoin for the long-term are better off to ignore the price, continue to accumulate, and just hodl thru until the bear market ends and the next bull run begins.